Robust and Consistent Ski Rental with Distributional Advice

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Abstract:The ski rental problem is a canonical model for online decision-making under uncertainty, capturing the fundamental trade-off between repeated rental costs and a one-time purchase. While classical algorithms focus on worst-case competitive ratios and recent "learning-augmented" methods leverage point-estimate predictions, neither approach fully exploits the richness of full distributional predictions while maintaining rigorous robustness guarantees. We address this gap by establishing a systematic framework that integrates distributional advice of unknown quality into both deterministic and randomized algorithms. For the deterministic setting, we formalize the problem under perfect distributional prediction and derive an efficient algorithm to compute the optimal threshold-buy day. We provide a rigorous performance analysis, identifying sufficient conditions on the predicted distribution under which the expected competitive ratio (ECR) matches the classic optimal randomized bound. To handle imperfect predictions, we propose the Clamp Policy, which restricts the buying threshold to a safe range controlled by a tunable parameter. We show that this policy is both robust, maintaining good performance even with large prediction errors, and consistent, approaching the optimal performance as predictions become accurate. For the randomized setting, we characterize the stopping distribution via a Water-Filling Algorithm, which optimizes expected cost while strictly satisfying robustness constraints. Experimental results across diverse distributions (Gaussian, geometric, and bi-modal) demonstrate that our framework improves consistency significantly over existing point-prediction baselines while maintaining comparable robustness.

Comments: 33 pages

Subjects:

Machine Learning (cs.LG)

Cite as: arXiv:2603.29233 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2603.29233v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2603.29233

arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

Submission history

From: Chenglin Fan [view email] [v1] Tue, 31 Mar 2026 04:04:21 UTC (169 KB)