March 21, 2026

• less than 3 min read

As the war in the Middle East stretches into its fourth week, energy supply chains around the world are starting to buckle under the pressure. Iran is reportedly not interested in discussing reopening the Strait of Hormuz, one of the globe’s most important passageways for oil and liquefied natural gas, and world leaders are running out of options to shield consumers from skyrocketing energy prices.

On land

For now, countries in Southeast Asia are taking the brunt of looming potential shortages. The region imports almost 80% of its crude oil from the Persian Gulf, and roughly 25% of the region’s liquefied natural gas must pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand are particularly sensitive to supply chain disruptions because of their low-to-nonexistent reserves. The region is starting to feel the impact:

• Around 40% of gas stations in Laos and about a third in Cambodia have closed because of fuel shortages.
• The Philippines has instituted four-day workweeks to reduce energy use. Sri Lanka also rolled out a four-day workweek for state institutions and schools.
• Pakistan has closed schools for two weeks to conserve energy.

In the skies

Airplane juice is expensive and difficult to store, so jet fuel stockpiles are usually much lower than those for other fuels like gasoline or diesel. Drastic prices for jet fuel, which have jumped as high as $200 per barrel compared to their prewar price of $85–$90, are often the first sign that oil supply is in trouble.

Airlines have canceled flights and warned of price increases to offset the costs. American Airlines said earlier this week that it expects its expenses this quarter to surge by $400 million due to fuel prices.

And what about the US? Economists have waved away fears of a recession, saying that the US economy is pretty much immune to oil price shocks. Unfortunately, US consumers aren’t as protected: US gas prices, one of the most politically charged markers for the economy, have increased by a dollar on average to almost $4 per gallon since the war began.—MM

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