FTimeXer: Frequency-aware Time-series Transformer with Exogenous variables for Robust Carbon Footprint Forecasting
arXiv:2604.02347v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate and up-to-date forecasting of the power grid's carbon footprint is crucial for effective product carbon footprint (PCF) accounting and informed decarbonization decisions. However, the carbon intensity of the grid exhibits high non-stationarity, and existing methods often struggle to effectively leverage periodic and oscillatory patterns. Furthermore, these methods tend to perform poorly when confronted with irregular exogenous inputs, such as missing data or misalignment. To tackle these challenges, we propose FTimeXer, a frequency-aware time-series Transformer designed with a robust training scheme that accommodates exogenous factors. FTimeXer features an Fast Fourier Transform (FFT)-driven frequency branch combined with gated time-
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Abstract:Accurate and up-to-date forecasting of the power grid's carbon footprint is crucial for effective product carbon footprint (PCF) accounting and informed decarbonization decisions. However, the carbon intensity of the grid exhibits high non-stationarity, and existing methods often struggle to effectively leverage periodic and oscillatory patterns. Furthermore, these methods tend to perform poorly when confronted with irregular exogenous inputs, such as missing data or misalignment. To tackle these challenges, we propose FTimeXer, a frequency-aware time-series Transformer designed with a robust training scheme that accommodates exogenous factors. FTimeXer features an Fast Fourier Transform (FFT)-driven frequency branch combined with gated time-frequency fusion, allowing it to capture multi-scale periodicity effectively. It also employs stochastic exogenous masking in conjunction with consistency regularization, which helps reduce spurious correlations and enhance stability. Experiments conducted on three real-world datasets show consistent improvements over strong baselines. As a result, these enhancements lead to more reliable forecasts of grid carbon factors, which are essential for effective PCF accounting and informed decision-making regarding decarbonization.
Comments: Accepted by The 5th International Conference on Electronics Technology and Artificial Intelligence (ETAI 2026)
Subjects:
Machine Learning (cs.LG)
Cite as: arXiv:2604.02347 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2604.02347v1 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2604.02347
arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite
Submission history
From: Hui Ma [view email] [v1] Mon, 16 Feb 2026 04:19:56 UTC (2,397 KB)
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